The US consumer inflation rate hit 7.9% over the past twelve months in February, the highest level in forty years. This could be even more likely in this cycle given that President Biden’s approval rating currently sits in the high thirties/low forties range. The sitting president’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections. The bad news for Democrats does not stop there. Indeed, a Rasmussen Reports poll from just before the report period summarized above gave the GOP a thirteen point edge ( Rasmussen does tend to lean Republican). Perhaps equally, if not more important is the so-called generic ballot question: if the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or Democratic candidate for Congress in your district? The Real Clear Politics average of polls from 2/19-3/8 indicated a 2.8 percentage point Republican advantage, a figure that is brought down by a couple of polls showing a Democratic advantage that are probably outliers. Members choosing not to seek reelection is generally a sign that they believe their party is going to fare poorly in the next election, and right now almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans are choosing to leave office. As of this writing forty-nine members of the House have announced that they will not seek reelection to their seats (a combination of retirements and seeking other office)-thirty-one are Democrats and eighteen are Republicans. The reasons for the doom and gloom surrounding the Democrats are almost too numerous to list. The current partisan division in the 117 th Congress features Democrats narrowly in control of both chambers: a slight eleven seat advantage in the House and the slimmest margin possible in the Senate, where Democratic control hinges on the tie-breaking ability of Vice President Kamala Harris.Īt present Democrats’ chances of maintaining their majorities appear bleak, especially in the House. We head into the 2022 US midterm elections with all eyes on Congress. Mark Brewer, Professor of Political Science & Acting Department Chair
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